AbstractHuman‐induced landscape changes affect hydrologic responses (e.g., floods) that can be detected from a suite of satellite and model data sets. Tapping these vast data sets using machine learning algorithms can produce critically important and accurate insights. In the Red River of the North Basin in the United States, agricultural subsurface drainage (SD; so‐called tile drainage) systems have greatly increased since the late 1990s. Over this period, river flow in the Red River has markedly increased and 6 of 13 major floods during the past century have occurred in the past two decades. The impact of SD systems on river flow is elusive because there are surprisingly few SD records in the United States. In this study, Random Forest machine learning (RFML) classification method running on Google Earth Engine's cloud computing platform was able to capture SD within a field (30 m) and its expansion over time for a large watershed (>100,000 km2). The resulting RFML classifier drew from operational multiple satellites and model data sets (total 14 variables with 36 layers including vegetation, land cover, soil properties, and climate variables). The classifier identified soil properties and land surface temperature to be the strongest predictors of SD. The maps agreed well with SD permit records (overall accuracies of 76.9–87.0%) and corresponded with subwatershed‐level statistics (r = 0.77–0.96). It is expected that the maps produced with this data‐intensive machine learning approach will help water resource managers to assess the hydrological impact from SD expansion and improve flood predictions in SD‐dominated regions.
