Tearing failure in sheet metal forming has traditionally been predicted based on the strain state of the material. However, a concern with this failure prediction method is that the strain based forming limit curve exhibits significant strain path dependence. A stress based failure criterion has been proposed and shown to be less sensitive to the strain path through numerical simulations and by analytically converting strain based data to stress space. However, a means to predict this stress based failure criterion without prior knowledge of the strain based forming limit curve for sheet metal is required. In this paper, an analytical prediction of the stress based forming limit curve is derived and compared to experimental and numerical results. The effects of model parameters are also investigated.