The Albertine Rift region faces rapid human population growth, while being a
biodiversity hotspot. Using satellite-derived continuous forest cover change
data, we examined national socioeconomic, demographic, and agricultural
production data, and local demographic and geographic variables to assess
multilevel forces driving significant local forest cover loss and gain outside
protected areas during the first decade of this century. Because the processes
that drive forest cover loss and gain are expected to be different, we
constructed models of change in each direction. Although forest cover change
varied by country, national level population change was the strongest driver of
forest loss rate for all countries, with a population doubling predicted to
cause 2.06 percent annual cover loss, while doubling tea production was
predicted to cause 1.90 percent. The rate of forest cover gain was associated
positively with increased production of the local staple crop cassava, but
negatively with local population density and meat production, suggesting
production drivers at multiple levels mitigate reforestation. We found a small,
but significant, decrease of forest cover loss rate with increasing distance
from protected areas, supporting studies suggesting higher rates of landscape
change near protected areas. While local population density mitigated the rate
of forest cover gain, cover loss also correlated to lower local population
density, an apparent paradox, but consistent with findings that larger scale
forces outweigh local drivers of deforestation. This implicates demographic and
market forces at national and international scales as critical drivers of
change, calling into question the necessary scale of forest protection policy
in this biodiversity hotspot.
