AbstractEl Niños and marine heatwaves (MHWs) are predicted to increase in frequency under greenhouse warming. The impact of climate oscillations like El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on coastal environments in the short term likely mimics those of climate change in the long term; therefore, El Niños may serve as a short‐term proxy for possible long‐term ecological responses to an increasingly variable climate. Understanding and prediction of ecosystem responses requires elucidating the mechanisms underlying different organizational scales (organism, space, and time). We analyzed spatiotemporal variation in the effect of the 2015–2016 El Niño and the overlapping 2014–2016 East Pacific MHW on three intertidal kelps (Hedophyllum sessile, Egregia menziesii, and Postelsia palmaeformis) at seven sites across 300 km of the Oregon coast and over three years post El Niño. We measured percent cover, density, maximum length, growth, and carbon : nitrogen (C:N) ratios monthly in spring/summer at each site from 2016 through 2018. Results revealed a complex interplay between spatial, temporal, and biological factors that modified the effects of these thermal anomalies on Oregon intertidal kelp populations. Our findings generally agree with prior literature showing detrimental effects of El Niño on kelp. However, El Niño and possibly MHW effects can be mitigated or amplified by environmental processes and kelp life history strategies. In our study, coastal upwelling provided regional relief for the kelp individuals with respect to their growth needs and mitigated the adverse effects of warming. On the other hand, we also found that coastal upwelling amplified, or compounded, detrimental effects of El Niño by increasing phytoplankton‐induced shading and mollusk grazing on juvenile and adult kelps, thereby reducing their density. Given the greater uncertainty associated with warming events and climate change in the California Current Upwelling System and its biological implications, our findings reiterate the importance of acquiring better understanding of how context‐specific underlying conditions modify ecosystem processes. More specifically, understanding how demographic traits and life history stages of kelp change with biological interactions and environmental forcing over temporal and spatial scales is crucial to anticipating future climate change ramifications.
