We now know that nanoplastics can harm aquatic organisms, but understanding ecological risk starts with understanding fate. We coupled population balance and fugacity models to predict the conditions under which nanoplastics remain as single particles, aggregate, or sediment and to predict their capacity to concentrate organic pollutants. We carried out simulations across a broad range of nanoplastic concentrations, particle sizes, and particle-particle interactions under a range of salinity and organic matter conditions. The model predicts that across plastic materials and environmental conditions, nanoplastics will either remain mostly dispersed or settle as aggregates with natural colloids. Nanoplastics of different size classes respond dissimilarly to concentration, ionic strength, and organic matter content, indicating that the sizes of nanoplastics to which organisms are exposed likely shift across ecological zones. We implemented a fugacity model of the Great Lakes to assess the organic pollution payload carried by nanoplastics, generating the expectation that nanoplastics would carry nine times more pollutants than microsized plastics and a threshold concentration of 10 μg/L at which they impact pollutant distribution. Our simulations across a broad range of factors inform future experimentation by highlighting the relative importance of size, concentration, material properties, and interactions in driving nanoplastic fate in aquatic environments.
