Summary
Temperature is a universal driver of microbial life, with rising sea surface temperatures expected to differentially influence the physiology, biodiversity, and distribution of bacteria and plankton. The impact of ocean warming on microbial interactions remains unclear, despite the importance of these relationships for ecosystem functioning. We employed weekly to monthly 18S and 16S rRNA gene amplicon metabarcoding over a full year (33 d) in a subtropical estuary, investigating microbial population dynamics and network interactions with respect to a temperature gradient (9–31°C). Certain microbes (e.g., Acidimicrobiia, Nitrososphaeria, and Syndiniales) increased in relative abundance with rising temperatures (Spearman ρ > 0.69), whereas other groups (e.g., Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria, Bacillariophyta, and Dinophyceae) slightly decreased, became saturated, or remained stable. With network analysis, we observed an increase in 18S– 18S interactions in warm (23–31°C) vs. cold (<23°C) temperatures, largely involving Syndiniales, Bacillariophyta, and Dinophyceae ASVs. Bacteria ASVs were more connected to other microbes (higher degree and centrality) and became more prominent in the cold network, highlighted by well-established cross-domain relationships (e.g., diatom–bacteria) and positive interactions among bacteria (e.g., SAR11 and Rhodobacterales). These efforts highlight the types of interactions that may be more common under changing temperatures, with implications for modeling biogeochemistry and assessing ecosystem health.
