Pattern in escalations in insurgent and terrorist activity.

Academic Article


  • In military planning, it is important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. We uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks. The time difference between fatal attacks by insurgent groups within individual provinces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and by terrorist groups operating worldwide, gives a potent indicator of the later pace of lethal activity.
  • Authors

  • Johnson, Neil
  • Carran, Spencer
  • Botner, Joel
  • Fontaine, Kyle
  • Laxague, Nathan
  • Nuetzel, Philip
  • Turnley, Jessica
  • Tivnan, Brian
  • Status

    Publication Date

  • July 1, 2011
  • Published In

  • Science  Journal
  • Digital Object Identifier (doi)

    Pubmed Id

  • 21719677
  • Start Page

  • 81
  • End Page

  • 84
  • Volume

  • 333
  • Issue

  • 6038