Subnational Non-Hispanic White Natural Decrease in the United States

Academic Article


  • AbstractThis research is the first to examine the prevalence and dynamics of non‐Hispanic white natural decrease in fine scale subregional units of the United States. In 2015, more non‐Hispanic Whites died than were born in 65 percent of the US counties. This is the highest incidence of non‐Hispanic white natural decrease ever reported. It results from a complex interaction among fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. Spatial regression is used to identify three critical variables (over‐65 population, child–women ratio, and women of childbearing age) that are the immediate demographic causes of this natural decrease. The timely, factual information in this paper provides a demographic context for analysis of the social, political, and policy implications of this emergent demographic phenomenon.
  • Status

    Publication Date

  • March 2020
  • Has Subject Area

    Published In


  • Basic Behavioral and Social Science
  • Behavioral and Social Science
  • Biomedical Imaging
  • Digital Object Identifier (doi)

    Start Page

  • 7
  • End Page

  • 31
  • Volume

  • 46
  • Issue

  • 1