Abstract
As populations age dramatically in developed economies, understanding the dynamics of employment in long-term care will help to ensure an adequate workforce and increase quality of care. Although downturns in the business cycle are associated with decreases in employment at the aggregate level and across most sectors of the economy, there are several reasons to believe that employment in the health and long-term care sectors increases during recessions. This is the first study of the relationship between changes in macroeconomic conditions and employment duration of direct care workers based upon analysis of detailed, monthly individual-level data. The results suggest that direct care workers have longer employment spells during recessionary periods, a countercyclical effect, but one that is confined to nursing home settings. However, the length of job spells in hospitals appears to be procyclical.
