This research provides the first in-depth analysis of the effect that increased cigarette taxes have on exercise behavior. Smoking may diminish the ability to exercise; individuals may also use exercise to compensate for the harmful health effects of smoking or to avoid gaining weight if they cut back. Our conceptual model highlights these and several other avenues for effect and reveals that the predicted effect of cigarette costs on exercise behavior is theoretically ambiguous. To investigate the relationship empirically, 1994-2012 data from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system are combined with state level cigarette tax rates and other state level variables. Several measures of both smoking and exercise behavior are created and estimated in reduced form models. Our results suggest that both smoking and exercise are reduced by cigarette taxes. However, the effects on exercise may be more complicated as we find that certain groups, such as young adults or those who have recently quit smoking, are affected differently. Our analyses also show that the responsiveness of both smoking and exercise behavior to cigarette costs is much smaller in the 2000s, an era of high-tax increases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
