Research Areas research areas


  • Michael D. Goldberg is a Professor of Economics at the University of New Hampshire, where his teaching, research, and service have been recognized with multiple honors, including the University's Outstanding Associate Professor Award and Outstanding Graduate Faculty Mentor Award. He has written extensively in the fields of International Finance and Macroeconomics. His columns on asset price fluctuations and policy reform have been published by leading newspapers in more than 50 countries, including the Financial Times, Times of London, The Guardian, Die Welt, The Shanghai Daily, The Japan Times, and La Tribune. His bestselling books, Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk (Princeton University Press, 2007) and Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State (Princeton University Press, 2011), both co-authored with Roman Frydman, propose a new approach to macroeconomic modeling that recognizes the importance of unforeseeable structural change in macroeconomic outcomes. Beyond Mechanical Markets was a finalist for the 2011 TIAA-CREF Paul A. Samuelson Award. The book was also one of the Financial Times non-fiction favorites of 2011, commended by its chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf. James Pressley of Bloomberg News also selected it as a top business book of 2011. Beyond Mechanical Markets has been translated into Chinese, Italian, Polish, French, and German. Imperfect Knowledge Economics has been translated into Chinese and Polish.
  • Selected Publications

    Academic Article

    Year Title
    2020 Forward Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: More Risky Not Less RationalEconometrics.  8:43-43. 2020
    2019 A Cointegrated VAR Analysis of Stock Price Models: Fundamentals, Psychology and Structural ChangeJournal of Behavioral Finance.  21:352-368. 2019
    2019 New Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Approach to Currency ReturnsInstitute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series2019
    2016 Are Currency Returns Really So Predictable?: Unforeseeable Structural Change and the Forward-Rate Anomaly 2016
    2015 Knightian Uncertainty and Stock-Price Movements: Why the REH Present-Value Model Failed EmpiricallyEconomics.  9. 2015
    2013 Fallibility in formal macroeconomics and finance theoryJournal of Economic Methodology.  20:386-396. 2013
    2013 Change and expectations in macroeconomic models: recognizing the limits to knowabilityJournal of Economic Methodology.  20:118-138. 2013
    2010 Testing Hypotheses in an I(2) Model with Applications to the Persistent Long Swings in the Dmk/$ RateJournal of Econometrics.  158:117-129. 2010
    2009 The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic EconomicsCritical Reviews in Microbiology CRC critical reviews in microbiology.  21:249-249. 2009
    2009 Financial Markets and the State: Long Swings, Risk, and the Scope of RegulationCapitalism and Society.  4. 2009
    2008 The Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate and the Limits of KnowledgeEssays in Economic & Business History.  23:7-7. 2008
    2008 Macroeconomic Theory for a World of Imperfect KnowledgeCapitalism and Society, Vol. 32008
    2005 International finance and open-economy macroeconomicsMacroeconomic Dynamics.  9:263-266. 2005
    2001 Macroeconomic fundamentals and the DM/$ exchange rate: Temporal instability and the monetary modelInternational Journal of Finance and Economics.  6:421-435. 2001
    2000 On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?Journal of International Money and Finance.  19:673-688. 2000
    1996 Imperfect knowledge and behaviour in the foreign exchange marketEconomic Journal.  106:869-893. 1996
    1996 Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vectorStructural Change and Economic Dynamics.  7:55-78. 1996
    1989 Noise Trading and the Efficiency of Financial Markets 1989


    Year Title
    2015 A New Rational Expectations Hypothesis: What Can Economists Really Know About the Future? 2015
    2014 The Contingent Expectations Hypothesis: Conditional Rationality in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory 2014
    2003 Imperfect Knowledge, Temporal Instability and an Uncertainty Premium: Towards a Resolution of the Excess-Returns Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market 2003


    Year Title
    2011 Beyond Mechanical Markets Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State 2011
    2006 Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk 2006


    Year Title
    2013 Opening Models of Asset Prices and Risk to Nonroutine Change.  205-205. 2013
    2013 The Imperfect Knowledge Imperative in Modern Macroeconomics and Finance Theory.  130-130. 2013
    2003 Imperfect Knowledge Expectations, Uncertainty Adjusted Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, and Exchange Rate Economics.  145-145. 2003
    2001 A Money-Output Connection in a Walrasian Model with Wealth Effects.  107-107. 2001
    1993 Theories Consistent Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics.  377-377. 1993
    1989 Noise Trading and the Efficiency of Financial Markets.  117-117. 1989

    Teaching Activities

  • Analytical Econ. Practicum Taught course 2021
  • Economic Problems Taught course 2021
  • Inter Macroeconomic Analysis Taught course 2020
  • International Finance Taught course 2020
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2020
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2019
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2019
  • International Finance Taught course 2019
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2019
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2018
  • Teaching Economics Taught course 2018
  • International Finance Taught course 2018
  • Top/Argument & Debate Taught course 2018
  • International Finance Taught course 2018
  • Teaching Economics Taught course 2017
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2017
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2016
  • Doctoral Research Taught course 2016
  • Inter Macroeconomic Analysis Taught course 2016
  • International Finance Taught course 2016
  • Macroeconomics I Taught course 2015
  • Independent Study Taught course 2015
  • International Finance Taught course 2015
  • Inter Macroeconomic Analysis Taught course 2014
  • International Finance Taught course 2014
  • Education And Training

  • B.S. Business Administration and Economics, Lehigh University
  • Ph.D. Economics, New York University
  • Full Name

  • Michael Goldberg
  • Mailing Address

  • University of New Hampshire

    University of New Hampshire

    10 Garrison Ave

    Durham, NH  03820

    United States