Positions

Research Areas research areas

Overview

  • Michael D. Goldberg is the Todd H. Crockett Professor of Economics at the University of New Hampshire. He has written extensively in the fields of International Finance and Macroeconomics and his columns on asset price fluctuations and policy reform have been published by leading newspapers in more than 50 countries. His bestselling books, Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk (Princeton University Press, 2007) and Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State (Princeton University Press, 2011), both co-authored with Roman Frydman, propose a new approach to macroeconomic modeling that recognizes the importance of unforeseeable change in the process underpinning economic outcomes. Beyond Mechanical Markets was a finalist for the 2011 TIAA-CREF Paul A. Samuelson Award. The book was also one of the Financial Times non-fiction favorites of 2011, commended by its chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf. James Pressley of Bloomberg News also selected it as a top business book of 2011. Beyond Mechanical Markets has been translated into Chinese, Italian, Polish, French, and German. Imperfect Knowledge Economics has been translated into Chinese and Polish.
  • Publications

    Academic Article

    Year Title
    2015 Knightian Uncertainty and Stock-Price Movements: Why the REH Present-Value Model Failed EmpiricallyEconomics.  9. 2015
    2013 Fallibility in formal macroeconomics and finance theoryJournal of Economic Methodology.  20:386-396. 2013
    2013 Change and expectations in macroeconomic models: recognizing the limits to knowabilityJournal of Economic Methodology.  20:118-138. 2013
    2010 Testing Hypotheses in an I(2) Model with Applications to the Persistent Long Swings in the Dmk/$ RateJournal of Econometrics.  158:117-129. 2010
    2009 The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic EconomicsCritical Reviews in Microbiology CRC critical reviews in microbiology.  21:249-249. 2009
    2009 Financial Markets and the State: Long Swings, Risk, and the Scope of RegulationCapitalism and Society.  4. 2009
    2008 The Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate and the Limits of KnowledgeEssays in Economic & Business History.  23:7-7. 2008
    2008 Macroeconomic Theory for a World of Imperfect KnowledgeCapitalism and Society, Vol. 32008
    2001 Macroeconomic fundamentals and the DM/$ exchange rate: Temporal instability and the monetary modelInternational Journal of Finance and Economics.  6:421-435. 2001
    2000 On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?Journal of International Money and Finance.  19:673-688. 2000
    1996 Imperfect knowledge and behaviour in the foreign exchange marketEconomic Journal.  106:869-893. 1996
    1996 Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vectorStructural Change and Economic Dynamics.  7:55-78. 1996
    1995 SYMMETRY RESTRICTIONS AND THE SEMBLANCE OF NEUTRALITY IN EXCHANGE-RATE MODELSJournal of Macroeconomics.  17:579-599. 1995

    Article

    Year Title
    2016 Are Currency Returns Really So Predictable?: Unforeseeable Structural Change and the Forward-Rate Anomaly 2016
    2015 A New Rational Expectations Hypothesis: What Can Economists Really Know About the Future? 2015
    2014 The Contingent Expectations Hypothesis: Conditional Rationality in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory 2014
    2013 Fallibility in Formal Macroeconomics and Finance Theory 2013
    2013 Imperfect Knowledge Economics 2013
    2012 An IKE Model of Currency Swings and Risk 2012
    2012 An IKE Policy Framework 2012
    2012 Opening Models of Asset Prices and Risk to Non-Routine Change 2012
    2012 Change and Expectations in Macroeconomic Models: Recognizing the Limits to Knowability 2012
    2010 Opening Models of Asset Prices and Risk to Non-Routine Change 2010
    2010 The Imperfect Knowledge Imperative in Modern Macroeconomics and Finance Theory 2010
    2010 Efficient Markets: Fictions and Reality 2010
    2010 Life After ‘Rational Expectations? 2010
    2009 Financial Markets and the State: Price Swings, Risk, and the Scope of Regulation 2009
    2009 Financial Markets and the State: Price Swings, Risk, and the Scope of Regulation 2009
    2008 Imperfect Knowledge and Fluctuations in Asset Markets 2008
    2008 A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings 2008
    2008 The Global Economic and Finacial Crsis: A Perfect Storm? 2008
    2007 Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings in the Exchange Rate 2007
    2006 Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk 2006
    2004 Limiting Exchange Rate Swings in a World of Imperfect Knowledge 2004
    2004 The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and the Role of Imperfect Knowledge 2004
    2004 Limiting Exchange Rate Swings in a World of Imperfect Knowledge 2004
    2004 The Imperfect Knowledge Forecasting Framework and Premia on Foreign Exchange: A New Approach to Asset Markets 2004
    2004 The Imperfect Knowledge Forecasting Framework and Premia on Foreign Exchange: A New Approach to Asset Markets 2004
    2004 The Imperfect Knowledge Forecasting Framework and Premia on Foreign Exchange: A New Approach to Asset Markets 2004
    2004 The Imperfect Knowledge Forecasting and Premia on Foreign Exchange: A New Approach to Asset Markets 2004
    2003 Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dyanmics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange 2003
    2003 Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Ratioal Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange 2003
    2003 A New Model of the Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market 2003
    2003 Imperfect Knowledge, Temporal Instability and an Uncertainty Premium: Towards a Resolution of the Excess-Returns Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market 2003
    2003 Imperfect Knowledge, Temporal Instability and an Uncertainty Premium: Towards a Resolution of the Excess-Returns Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market 2003
    2002 Imperfect Knowledge, Temporal Instability and an Uncertainty Premium: Towards a Resolution of the Excess-Returns Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market 2002
    2002 Imperfect Knowledge, Temporal Instability and an Uncertainty Premium: Towards a Resolution of the Excess-Returns Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market 2002
    2002 Imperfect Knowledge Expectations and Long-Swings Behavior in the Foreign Exchange Market 2002
    2001 Imperfect Knowledge Expectations, Uncertainty Premia and Exchange Rate Dynamics 2001
    2001 Macroeconomics Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Imperfect Knowledge and the Monetary Model 2001
    2001 Do Monetary Models of the Exchange Rate Fit the Data? 2001
    2000 Do Monetary Models of the Exchange Rate Fit the Data? 2000
    2000 Do Macroeconomic Fundamentals Matter for Exchange Rates? 2000
    2000 Should Cointegrating Regressions of the Monetary Model Include Short-Run Interest Rates? 2000
    2000 Should Cointegrating Regressions of the Monetary Model Include Short-Run Interest Rates?, 2000
    1999 Imperfect Knowledge and Behavior in the Foreign Exchange Market 1999
    1998 Symmetry Restrictions and Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Interpreting the Evidence 1998
    1997 Endogenous Elasticity of Heterogeneous Labor Supply 1997
    1996 Explaining Long-Swings in the Foreign Exchange Market 1996
    1996 Monopsony Power, Wealth Distribution, and Procyclical Real Wages 1996
    1996 Imperfect Knowledge and Behavior in the Foreign Exchange Market 1996
    1995 In Search of an Exchange Rate Model Free of Symmetry Restrictions 1995
    1994 Qualitative Rationality and Behavior in the Foreign Exchange Market 1994
    1993 Empirical Exchange Rate Models and Shifts in the Co-Integrating Vector 1993
    1993 Long-Run Non-Neutrality in a Standard Sticky-Price Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate 1993
    1991 Theories Consistent Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics 1991
    1990 Re-Examining the Empirical Performance of the Monetary Models of the Exchange Rate 1990
    1988 Noise Trading and the Efficiency of Financial Markets 1988

    Book

    Year Title
    2011 Beyond Mechanical Markets Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State 2011
    2006 Imperfect Knowledge Economics: Exchange Rates and Risk 2006

    Chapter

    Year Title
    2013 Opening Models of Asset Prices and Risk to Nonroutine Change.  205-205. 2013
    2013 The Imperfect Knowledge Imperative in Modern Macroeconomics and Finance Theory.  130-130. 2013
    2010 The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economists: A Summary.  427-427. 2010
    2006 Imperfect Knowledge Expectations, Uncertainty Premia, and Exchange Rate Dynamics.  153-153. 2006
    2004 Limiting Exchange Rate Swings in a World of Imperfect Knowledge.  35-35. 2004
    2003 Imperfect Knowledge Expectations, Uncertainty Adjusted Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, and Exchange Rate Economics.  145-145. 2003
    2001 A Money-Output Connection in a Walrasian Model with Wealth Effects.  107-107. 2001
    1993 Theories Consistent Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics.  377-377. 1993
    1989 Noise Trading and the Efficiency of Financial Markets.  117-117. 1989

    Teaching Activities

  • International Finance Taught course 2019
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2019
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2018
  • Teaching Economics Taught course 2018
  • International Finance Taught course 2018
  • Top/Argument & Debate Taught course 2018
  • International Finance Taught course 2018
  • Teaching Economics Taught course 2017
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2017
  • Principles of Economics Macro Taught course 2016
  • Doctoral Research Taught course 2016
  • Inter Macroeconomic Analysis Taught course 2016
  • International Finance Taught course 2016
  • Macroeconomics I Taught course 2015
  • Independent Study Taught course 2015
  • International Finance Taught course 2015
  • Inter Macroeconomic Analysis Taught course 2014
  • International Finance Taught course 2014
  • Education And Training

  • B.S. Business Administration and Economics, Lehigh University
  • Ph.D. Economics, New York University
  • Full Name

  • Michael Goldberg